In 1815, Mount Tambora in Indonesia erupted with incredible power. It remains the most powerful volcanic eruption in recorded history. The explosion sent a massive cloud of sun-blocking particles into the atmosphere, cooling the planet and triggering widespread disaster. Scientists now warn that the next massive volcanic eruption could have similar catastrophic effects.
Now, two hundred years later, scientists warn that the next massive volcanic eruption is not a matter of “if” but “when.” Markus Stoffel, a climate expert at the University of Geneva, estimates there is a one-in-six chance of such an event happening within this century.
1816-A year without summer
The year after, known as the “year without a summer,” saw global temperatures drop sharply. Crops failed, famine spread, and tens of thousands died. Diseases like cholera surged. Some even credit the unusual weather with inspiring Mary Shelley to write Frankenstein.
In the summer of 1815, people in America and Western Europe saw a red glow in the sunsets. In May 1816, frost ruined the crops. By June, snowfall was common. Violent snowstorms hit Eastern North America. Quebec had nearly thirty centimeters of snow. Some rivers and lakes stayed frozen until July.
A Changed World Today
The world today is extremely different from 1815. There are billions more people and the climate has warmed due to human activities. A massive eruption today could lead to chaos on an even greater scale.
Volcanoes have shaped Earth for millions of years, creating continents and influencing the climate. When they erupt, they release gases, including sulfur dioxide, which is key to cooling the planet.
During an eruption, sulfur dioxide can rise high into the stratosphere, forming tiny particles that reflect sunlight away from Earth. These particles can cool the planet for several years. Mount Pinatubo’s eruption in 1991, for example, cooled the Earth by about 0.5°C for a few years, despite being less powerful than Tambora.
Scientists use ice cores and tree rings to study older eruptions. Evidence shows that massive eruptions in the past cooled the planet by up to 1.5°C. Tambora itself lowered temperatures by at least 1°C, and the Samalas eruption in 1257 may have contributed to the centuries long “Little Ice Age.”
A New Climate Threat
The next major eruption will happen in a world already dealing with climate instability. A warming planet may even amplify the cooling effects of volcanic eruptions.
Faster air circulation caused by warming could spread volcanic particles more quickly. Smaller particles scatter sunlight more efficiently, intensifying the cooling effect. Oceans, which are warming too, might add to this complexity.
Additionally, climate change may trigger more eruptions. Melting glaciers reduce pressure on volcanic systems, allowing magma to rise more easily. Heavy rainfall, driven by climate change, can seep into the ground and react with magma, potentially triggering eruptions.
Unpredictable and Unprepared
An estimated 800 million people live near active volcanoes. A massive eruption could wipe out entire cities. For example, Campi Flegrei in Italy sits dangerously close to Naples, home to one million people.
The long-term effects could be catastrophic. Even a 1°C drop in global temperature could disrupt weather patterns, harm crops, and impact food supplies in major agricultural regions like the U.S., China, and Russia. This could lead to famine, economic losses, and even political conflict.
Economic damages from an eruption similar to Tambora could surpass $3.6 trillion in the first year alone. Worse, the cooling would be temporary. Within a few years, the planet would return to its current warming trajectory.
What Experts Say About Volcanic Eruption
Scientists are just beginning to understand what might happen, and the warning is clear. We are not prepared.
Massive volcanic eruptions cannot be prevented. However, experts stress the need for preparation. This includes assessing risks, planning evacuations, securing food supplies, and conducting stress tests.
The probability of such an eruption might seem low, but it’s far from zero. Without preparation, the world could face unimaginable consequences.
