Neck-and-Neck Poll Highlights Vulnerabilities for Biden and Trump in Anticipated 2024 Rematch
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted online from December 5 to 11 sheds light on the potential dynamics of a 2024 election rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. The poll, involving 4,411 US adults, reveals a closely contested scenario, with Trump holding a slim 2-point lead in a head-to-head matchup, securing 38% compared to Biden’s 36%, while 26% remain undecided or open to choices. Both candidates face significant vulnerabilities that may influence voter sentiment.
While Trump appears to be the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination, the poll exposes a prevailing sense of apathy among many voters concerning a potential Biden-Trump rematch. Approximately six in 10 respondents express dissatisfaction with the two-party system and express a desire for a third alternative.
Adding complexity to the political landscape is the emergence of anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has initiated an independent bid. The poll suggests that Kennedy could draw more support from Biden than Trump. In a scenario including Kennedy as an option, Trump’s lead extends to a 5-point advantage, with 36% support for Trump, 31% for Biden, and 16% for Kennedy.
This poll underscores the potential influence of third-party candidates in US elections, reminiscent of historical instances involving figures like Ross Perot in 1992 and Ralph Nader in 2000. Additionally, it highlights the impact of the Electoral College system and emphasizes the crucial role played by voters in select states. The survey provides valuable insights into the nuanced landscape of American politics as the 2024 election approaches.
