Russia-Ukraine War: Is Russia Running Low?
Russia launched a series of missile strikes against Ukraine this week, but some security experts say Russia has run out of sophisticated and sophisticated missiles.
What missiles has Russia launched?
As Russia has stepped up its missile strikes in recent times, questions have been raised about the nature of its arsenal.
Defense experts have pointed to Russia’s use of surface-to-air missiles to target ground targets, saying they may have run out of more suitable weapons.
“What’s most notable about recent attacks is the increased use of different types of missiles against ground targets,” says Douglas Barry, senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
“Earth-attack cruise missiles, that’s something we think there’s a problem with.” At least in some areas it’s not disappearing, but possibly declining.’
Russia used more precision-guided missiles to hit land targets across Ukraine at the start of the war, but those strikes ended over the summer, with some Western defense officials saying their stockpiles were significantly depleted. But it has decreased.
This week, the head of British intelligence agency GCHQ, Sir Jeremy Fleming, said: ‘We know and the Russian commanders on the ground know that they are running out of supplies and ammunition.
Russia’s missile stockpile is a closely guarded secret, and we don’t know what material Western intelligence services are basing their analysis on, but images emerging from recent attacks offer some clues.
Some photos of the wreckage posted online show debris from S-300 missiles on the ground in Ukraine.
These are weapons originally designed to attack targets in the air, not on the ground.
Such posts on social media claim that Russia has re-used these S-300 missiles to hit ground targets.
We’ve taken a closer look at a series of images circulating online, and have confirmed three images of debris on the ground in Ukraine that are consistent with S-300 surface-to-air missiles, though Russia and Ukraine Both have these weapons and blame each other for brandishing them.
When we examined the writing on the edge of the wreckage in the S-300 photos, it and its labeling were consistent.
The dimensions are also similar. There are comparisons.
Some experts say that Russia is using these weapons for different purposes because it has run out of specific missiles.
Louise Jones, head of intelligence at MacKenzie Intelligence Services, said: “They are using long-range missiles to hit their targets in Kio and Luo etc. I’m sure they reviewed their stockpile, looked at their ability to produce more missiles. And concluded that the second best way to achieve those goals is to change the use of things like the S-300 missile.
Russia’s use of surface-to-air missiles to target ground targets also demonstrates the operational limitations facing the Russian Air Force in Ukraine. From the start of its invasion, the Russian Air Force failed to gain air superiority over Ukraine.
Could these be Ukrainian missiles? The Ukrainians also use the S-300 as a defensive weapon to shoot down Russian missiles, which the Russians say are falling on the ground, causing damage and civilian casualties.
Evgeny Popov, an official in Russia’s parliament, told the BBC that damage to civilian areas such as children’s playgrounds was the work of the (Ukrainian) anti-missile system.
Weapons experts say it is very difficult to tell from the debris of the missile where it came from.
Ian Williams, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says he has seen no evidence of Ukrainian systems being targeted during recent attacks.
“It is difficult to say for sure from the limited photos of the wreckage, but it is unlikely that Ukrainian air defenses were deployed in the city centers.”
“You’re defending,” says Williams. Any of the (Ukrainian) interceptors that are crashing are unlikely to fall in urban areas.
What other weapons has Russia launched?
Russia started the war with a barrage of missile attacks. As of March 7, the Pentagon estimated that the Russians had fired about 600 missiles in the first 11 days of the conflict.
Attacks continued by land, sea and air, and mostly from within protected Russian territory.
Among the types of weapons fired by Russia are ballistic and cruise missiles from the Iskander launch platform and Kalibr cruise missiles from ships and submarines deployed in the Black Sea.
KH-101 and KH-555 cruise missiles, as well as Tochka-U missiles, have been fired, killing more than 50 people at the Kramatosk railway station in April.
A BBC analysis of the attack on the Kremenchuk shopping center in late June, which killed at least 20 people, determined that the missiles used were either Kh-22s or a more advanced variant. Kh-32.
These are older missiles that were originally designed to attack ships rather than land targets, giving rise to this theory.
