Russia-Ukraine War- Which Five Turns May Take in 2023?
The ongoing war in Ukraine is almost a year old. The second year will begin in February. On this occasion, we tried to understand from some military experts, what form this war can take in 2023?
Will this end in the near future? If this happens, will it be possible through negotiations or in Maidan-e-Jang? Or this war can drag on until 2024?
After the winter, the Russian offensive will be decisive
Michael Clarke, Associate Director, Strategic Studies, Exeter, UK
History is the witness. The winter season proved to be a curse for all those who tried to cross the Eurasian grasslands – the Great Steppes and attack any other country.
From Napoleon to Hitler to Stalin, everyone has had to advance their armies in the face of the winter of the steppe plains, and now Vladimir Putin, who is withdrawing his troops from the invasion of Maidan-e-Jung, is also the reason. These are the winters. Putin’s plan is to wait for winter to end and prepare the army for a renewed offensive as soon as spring begins.
Both sides need such a ceasefire in the winter, but the Ukrainian army is proving better than the Russian army in terms of advancing even in this season, and we hope that they will at least put pressure on Russia in the Donbas region. will be able to maintain.
Despite the severe cold, if Ukraine is getting such an advantage over Russia, then it will hardly want to stop or retreat. However, in the southwestern region, especially after the recapture of Kherson, the invasion of Ukraine may come to a halt.
In such a situation, the pressure on the important road and rail links connecting Russia with Crimea by crossing the eastern side of the Dnieper River will be a bit higher, but the possibility of a sudden major attack from Ukraine cannot be ruled out. could
As far as 2023 is concerned, the entire situation and direction of the war depends on the invasions by Russia after the winter. A few days ago, President Putin has said that more than 50,000 of his soldiers are deployed on the war front, while two and a half million soldiers are being prepared for the invasion next year.
Therefore, until the situation regarding the deployment of these new soldiers of Russia is not clarified, there is no scope for any other situation except war.
Therefore, this situation which has been a ceasefire for a while, is not going to last for long. Putin has made it clear that he will not accept anything less than victory and Ukraine has announced that its troops will not retreat until the last breath.
Ukraine Will Get All Its Land Back Andrei Piantkovsky, Scientist and War Analyst, Washington DC
In my view, Ukraine will regain all its territories occupied by Russia by the spring of 2023. Two reasons behind reaching this result are very clear.
The first and most important reason for this is the morale and determination of the Ukrainian army and the courage of the entire Ukraine as a country to stand united in the war. Such an example has never been seen before in the entire modern history of war.
And the second reason is that the western countries have a tremendous feeling. The historical challenges that Western countries have felt after years of honoring the Russian dictator are clearly reflected in the recent statement of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
Stoltenberg said – “The price we (Western countries) are paying now with money, the people of Ukraine are paying with their blood. When the dictatorial power respects its army, then we will have to pay an even bigger price.” . Then for all of us this world will be more dangerous than ever.”
As far as Ukraine’s victory in the current war is concerned, it will depend on how quickly NATO rolls the dice on military equipment (tanks, warships and long-range missiles) to Ukraine. makes
I expect that Melitopol will be the decisive battle ground in the coming months (maybe in a few weeks). After the capture of Melitopol, the access of the Ukrainian army to the Ozhava Sea will be easier. They can then cut off all supply and communication lines to Crimea
After this aggressive advance of Ukraine on this front of the war, a formal agreement on the surrender of Russia will be made in technical talks. The winners will be the US and UK along with Ukraine, who will shape the new international security system.
In my eyes, there is no end to this war Barbara Janchetta, Department of War Studies, King’s College, London Before the start of the war, Vladimir Putin thought that Ukraine would lay down arms against his strong army. He also thought that no other country would stand with Ukraine in his invasion.”
“All these assessments of Putin proved to be wrong and because of this, today this entire conflict has turned into a war, the end of which is not in sight at the moment.
These winters will be very difficult, because Russia will intensify attacks on the infrastructure to demoralize the Ukrainian army and common people, but amidst the destruction and devastation, Ukraine has shown amazing resilience. These people will remain steadfast and this war will drag on for a long time.
In such an environment, the possibility of negotiation seems very weak, because for permanent peace, at least one side will have to change its main demands, but this
How will the war finally end?
It looks like there is only one way. Loss of life and property in war. This is the aspect that will end the frenzy of the political leadership of Russia regarding the war. It can happen anytime inside Russia.
If you look at the past, then in any war that had to bear the brunt of miscalculation, like America in Vietnam, Soviet Russia in Afghanistan, all such wars ended in the same way.
As soon as the political situation in all these countries changed, the governments had to withdraw from the war. Whether they were honorable or not, there was no other choice.
This may be possible in the case of Ukraine as well, provided that the Western countries stand firmly in support of Ukraine with increasing domestic pressure on Russia due to the loss of life and property in the war.
But unfortunately, this battle with the army will continue on the economic front as well. Probably, it does not seem to end even by the end of 2023.
Russia’s defeat in the war is certain Ben Hodges, former commanding general of US forces in Europe Although it is too early to plan the celebration of the Ukrainian army’s victory in the capital Kiev, all the circumstances are in favor of Ukraine. Ukraine will win this war this year, I have no doubt about it.
Although things will change at a slower pace due to winter, Ukraine’s military will outperform Russia on all fronts, as it has better winter equipment than Britain, Canada and Germany.
Come January, Ukraine will start its final war campaign and that campaign will be to liberate Crimea from Russian occupation.
We know that every war in the world takes a severe test of your will power along with your military system. In this sense, when I see the determination of the people and the army of Ukraine.
The way they are trying to keep the military system better even in difficult situations, I don’t see anything except the defeat of Russia.
I reached this conclusion when the Russian army retreated from Kherson. Due to this, on the one hand, the morale of the Ukrainian army and the people increased, on the other hand, because of this, the Kremlin became bitter.
The third most important thing, because of this, the entire Crimea occupied by Russia has now come within the reach of the Ukrainian army and weapons.
I am sure that by the end of 2023, Ukraine’s occupation of Crimea will be fully restored. However, there may be some agreements regarding this so that Russia can gradually remove its naval base stationed in Sevastopol.
It will also probably end (until 2025) the treaty that was made before Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
Apart from this, efforts to restore Ukraine’s infrastructure on the Azov Sea will be accelerated. It also includes ports such as Mariupol and Bardeyansk and the North Crimean Canal.
What is happening, will continue to happen David Gendelman, military expert, Israel
Instead of thinking how this war will end, it will be interesting to see which side achieves what in the next phase.
Only half of Russia’s soldiers, whose number is around 300,000, are deployed on the front of the war going on with Ukraine. Moreover, especially after the retreat from Kherson, the remaining troops are enough to strengthen Russia for the next attack.
Even if Russia’s occupation of areas like Luhansk and Donetsk remains intact, it seems impossible to surround the Ukrainian army in the Donbass of southern Ukraine.
The most likely possibility is that Russia will continue its current strategy, under which it is targeting the Ukrainian army in narrow areas like Bakhmut and Avadivika, preventing them from advancing. Russia is also adopting the same strategy in Swatov-Krimina area.
Apart from this, Russia can continue its strategy of maintaining its lead by destroying other infrastructures by targeting the power plants of Ukraine.
A large number of Ukrainian soldiers are now free after pushing Russia back from Kherson. The most strategically important area for them is the southern part.
Melitopol or Burdeyansk, the capture of which would mean the separation of the Russian mainland from the Crimea. This can prove to be a big victory for Ukraine, so the fortification of Melitopol of Russia is being done in a tremendous way.
Ukraine has another big option – Swatov. Success in capturing it means a direct threat to the entire northern front of the Russian army.
Now the question here is that how many soldiers are left with Ukraine to attack this front? And also how many regular and reserve troops the Ukrainian General Zaluzny prepares for the attack in the next one to three months.
Arrangement of military vehicles and heavy weapons will also be decisive in this.
These questions will be answered after the snowfall. Only on the basis of this answer, we will be able to guess how what is going on between Russia and Ukraine will end.
Note- The experts have been selected in the article based on their extensive experience and different perspectives.
